4.1.3. Scenarios

The energy sector is assessed under two distinct scenarios: the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario and the Long-Term Strategy (LTS) scenario. The BAU scenario follows Jamaica’s 2018 Integrated Resource Plan, meeting growing energy demand through a mix of conventional and intermittent renewable sources, with no significant improvements in transmission losses, energy efficiency, or electrification of cooking. In contrast, the LTS scenario envisions a fully renewable energy system by 2050, with substantial reductions in transmission and distribution losses, widespread adoption of energy-efficient technologies, electrification of cooking, and extensive use of energy storage to support intermittent renewables. Long-Term Strategy (LTS) Actions.

The actions modelled on the LTS scenario are:

Deployment of Renewable Energies

  • Until 2038, the strategy aligns with the 2018 Jamaica Integrated Resource Plan.

  • By 2050, the energy mix is projected to consist entirely of intermittent renewables.

Systems losses

  • Transmission and distribution lossess will be reduced by 8% by 2050.

Energy Demand Growth

  • According to Jamaica´s GDP

Energy storage

  • By 2038, 540 MW of battery energy storage systems (BEES) will be installed.

  • BESS will account for 22 % of the total installed capacity of power plants.

Cookers electrification

  • In 2035, kerosene, wood and charcoal stoves will be replaced with electrical options.

  • By 2050, no new LPG cookers will be in the market, and the amount in use will be reduced to 9 % of the BAU scenario.

Energy efficiency

  • Use of solar water heating will be reduced 2 % of traditional heaters by 2030, and 3 % by 2050.

  • In 2030, replace 100 % of electric lighting with LED lamps.

  • In 2040, replace electrical units in existing buildings, relative to 2021:

    • 1 ,178 ,797 refrigeration units.

    • 17 ,925 AC units.