4.5.3. Scenarios
The Forestry sector is modeled under two contrasting scenarios: a Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario and a Long-Term Strategy (LTS) scenario. Under BAU, forest resources continue to decline, with 0.46% annual deforestation and only 0.55% annual reforestation, leading to a net loss of forest cover over time and increasing ecosystem vulnerability. In contrast, the LTS scenario presents a proactive approach aimed at forest conservation and expansion to enhance climate resilience and ecosystem services. The strategy emphasizes controlling deforestation, promoting reforestation, and restoring coastal ecosystems such as mangroves, aligning with broader environmental goals.
The actions modeled in the LTS scenario are:
- Deforestation
Reduction of deforestation by 30% from 2020 levels
Control deforestation rates to maintain “No-net-loss” forest cover
- Forest cover
Increase of 5% forest cover from 2020 levels
Increase of 3% of forest land cover by 2050
Increase 4,000 hectares of mangrove cover by 2050
For the Agricultural and Livestock sector the LTS scenario promotes sustainable land management and climate-smart agricultural practices, aiming to balance agricultural productivity with environmental protection. The strategy focuses on integrating agroforestry, reducing livestock emissions, and improving manure management to lower greenhouse gas emissions and enhance productivity.
The actions modeled in the LTS scenario are:
- Agroforestry
Implementation of agroforestry systems in 10% of cropland2 for coffee and cacao by 2050
- Sustainable livestock
Reduction of 14% of livestock emissions through sustainable practices like rotational pastures rotational pastures, livestock management practices and disease prevention by 2030
- Manure management
Reduction of 20% of methane emissions from 2020 levels due to anaerobic digestion of manure by 2030