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Scenarios
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The transport sector is assessed through two distinct pathways: the Business-As-Usual
(BAU) scenario and the Long-Term Strategy (LTS) scenario. The BAU scenario anticipates minimal progress,
with limited electrification of the vehicle fleet and no significant policy interventions for energy efficiency, alternative fuels,
or public transport expansion, based on projections from the “Strategy Framework for Electric Mobility” by the Interamerican Development Bank.
Conversely, the LTS scenario outlines an ambitious and comprehensive shift towards sustainable transport, driven by widespread electrification,
enhanced fuel efficiency, and significant investments in supporting infrastructure and modal shifts.

The actions modeled in the LTS scenario include:

**Fleet electrification**
  * By 2030, 12 % of the private fleet (cars, motorcycles, SUVs), 16 % of the public fleet (taxis, buses, minibuses), and 1 % of light and heavy freight are electric.  
  * By 2050, 67 % of the private fleet and public fleet, and 2 % of light and heavy freight are electric.



**Efficiency improvements**
  * By 2030, efficiency is improved by 15 % from 2020 levels.  
  * By 2050, efficiency is improved by 40 % from 2020 levels.



**Modal shift**
  * The use of public transport grows to 35 % by 2030 and increases a further 10 % by 2050.